Predictions on the Stock Markets and Warnings

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April 27 2018 – Kevin Yaworski – Proud Canadian and Global Citizen

Some stock market analysts are predicting the end of the recent bull markets coming, already started or major corrections starting in 3 weeks to 3 years. They also confirming the fact that we have seen US markets and independent news affect Canada markets yet they can often be moving in different directions from one another similar to their economies.

See the globe articles below with more details on this and a warning about fake gold and other risks if looking for lower risk or alternative investments when markets trend down.

I am not an expert in this field and this is not advice but more information and suggestions so you can be more informed and make better decisions. Whether you are or want to get involved in self directing or want to be better informed when talking to your financial advisor if you use or get one.

Why trust my advice or suggestions?

In 2003 my wife and I invested about $10k in a market research software and support system that included training in equity research and trading. We became self directed traders on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSE, Canada’s largest exchange) for several years with mostly short term positions. We traded mostly in blue chip stocks from major banks, large resource related corporations and similar blue chip stocks. The training and experience it lead to proved to be worth more than the software as many free online sites (ad supported) for monitoring and reasearching the markets ended up evolving faster.

We initially used a major brokerage but quickly switched to a lower cost and trusted online only brokerage. We leveraged some savings and up to $20k in two low interest line of credits (secured by our home and later by just excellent credit history).

We followed short and longer term trends, business news and financial reports. My wife did most of the trade executions being at home with our young kids at the time and we both did research. We mostly traded when the TSE was close to closing. Living in London England at the time made it easier with the time change and working part or full time.

Until about 2006 or earlier we were spending about an hour a day and earning about 7 to 15% returns after paying interest on the lines of credit (part of the interest could be written of as an expense). It then got harder to follow the trends and we started to loose interest as other areas of our life took priority and more time like the kids, travel and socializing. We spent less time, got less in return and when we started breaking even we pulled out. Good timing as the markets went bare and then down hard in 08 / 09 and it took years to recover.

We didn’t trade long enough or have enough funds at the time to work with to recover all of our initial $10k investment but it was a great learning experience which we could likely leverage again with not much time to get up to speed.

Since then we have left our investing decisions mostly in the hands of a few large trusted institutions via employeer pensions, our bank, credit union and more recently a financial advisor I have known and trusted personally for over ten years.

Our investment profile is moderate aggressive based on age, kids age, risk tolerence and goals. A new friend of mine is a short term trader and suggested watching the markets closely in the next two or three weeks. Then I noticed a large part of our portfolio took a fairly big hit over 2% loss last quarter so I had a chat with our advisor.

They said that swings expected but the long term trend is up. That we have 15 to 20 yrs left to invest. That we can change to more conservative (from moderate aggressive) but may miss the up turns and overall trend up. We risk not earning enough to keep up with inflation ….

If I had more time or desire I could self direct again but not sure I want too.

My new friends response to our advisors comments “hahaha ohh the old perma-bull financial advisors (no offense). They remind me of RE agents, markets only go up! Said the same thing pre-08. Next 2-3 weeks should tell us if crash begins or we’re doing another final up leg. Coin flip.”

Time will tell.

I appreciate info and suggestions from both of them and others like them with more and recent experience. In the end it has to be our decision as it our retirement future. My wife doesn’t have the time or energy and does a lot for our family in other ways so trusts me to make the decisions for this and tax related.

Here is the warning I mentioned and more info on market predictions from several experts.

Fake gold from RBC not ours says Royal Canadian Mint in Ottawa

More on markets.

Ten popular stock market views (that David Rosenberg thinks are bunk, and Canada can rally, anyway)

The Top 1000: A better way to predict which stocks will outperform

About Kevin Yaworski

I use my blog to write about things that I think are a matter of public interest or that I think others will be interested in
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